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Discussion: Utility of Probability Models in Healthcare Administration

You are the healthcare administration leader for a health services organization and are interested in achieving a standard, whereby 90% of all patients are screened within the initial 15 minutes of arriving for a family practice appointment. In a random sample of 30 patients, you find that 25 were screened within 15 minutes. The probability that this event (or one more extreme) would occur, might be modeled as a binomial with the following probability statement:

     P(X≤25 | N=30, p=0.9)

To solve, you use =binom.dist(25, 30, 0.9, TRUE) in Excel and find that you would expect 25 or fewer screenings in 30 trials when the success rate should be 0.9 about 17.5% of the time.

For this Discussion, review and consider how one of the distributions presented might be useful for healthcare administration leaders.

By Day 3

Post an example of how one of the distributions presented might be used in your health services organization or one with which you are familiar. Then, generate a representative probability statement based on the scenario and solve using fictitious data. Be specific in your probability statement.

500 words minimum

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